A new study published in the journal Nature has linked over $43 trillion (US$28 trillion) in global heat-related economic damage to emissions from the world’s largest corporations. For comparison, this figure is just slightly lesser than the total value of all goods and services produced in the United States in 2024, which amounted to about $44 trillion (US$29 trillion).
Researchers at Dartmouth College traced the contributions of 111 major companies to rising global temperatures and the resulting economic losses, discovering that more than half of the total cost was linked to just ten fossil fuel producers including companies like Chevron, ExxonMobil, BP and Shell.
The team analysed emissions data from these carbon-intensive companies—some dating back 137 years ago (the furthest available data)—and ran 1,000 computer simulations to estimate how their pollution affected Earth’s average surface temperature compared to a world without those emissions.
They also calculated each company’s contribution to the five hottest days of the year by running 80 additional computer simulations and applying a formula that links extreme heat intensity to shifts in economic output.
With this new modelling, the researchers show that it is now scientifically possible to trace the damage caused by climate change back to specific companies.
“We have now reached a point in the climate crisis where the total damages are so immense that the contributions of a single company's product can amount to tens of billions of dollars a year,” said Chris Field, a Stanford University climate scientist.
As the world pushes for climate justice, research like this gives us a powerful tool us to not just to measure the impact of pollution but also to identify those responsible and guide future solutions. These findings could strengthen climate litigation and support new laws aimed at holding polluters financially accountable.
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